The headline that ran in every Austin paper last week was that Lakeway inventory was up 22% year-over-year. The implication, picked up uncritically by national outlets, was that the market here was "softening" — a word that means almost nothing without context.
In the field, the picture is different, and more useful. Yes, active listings are up. But the median list-to-sale ratio in Lakeway has held at 97.4% — within a hair of last year. The average days-on-market on properties above three million has actually fallen, from 71 days a year ago to 38 today. And the number of off-market transactions we have personally been involved in this quarter is up sharply.
What the headline number is actually measuring.
The 22% inventory increase is, in our reading of the MLS data, almost entirely accounted for by a single segment: aspirationally-priced new construction in the 1.5 to 2.5 million range, much of it sitting on smaller lots in Rough Hollow and Sweetwater. These are homes built on speculation, not for a specific buyer, and the buyers for that price band have become more selective.
Above three million — which is where most of our practice lives — inventory is essentially flat. Estate-grade properties on acreage, with mature trees and water access, are still moving in under sixty days when correctly priced. The very best of them never make MLS at all.
“A 22% inventory rise is, here, mostly a story about new construction at one price band. The estate market reads quite differently.”
What we are telling our clients.
For sellers in the 3M+ band: the market is still yours, but only on properly-priced, properly-prepared homes. Buyers in this range are well-advised, well-traveled, and patient. They will wait for the right house. They will not overpay for a wrong one.
For buyers: there is more selection in the 1.5–2.5 band than there has been in five years. If that is your range, you have leverage you did not have in 2024. Above three million, the dynamic is unchanged — the best assets are still scarce, and they will be scarce next quarter as well.
For owners considering selling but not yet listed: this is the conversation we are having most often. We can usually tell you within a thirty-minute walk-through whether your house is a 2026 sale or a 2027 sale. Almost no one is well-served by a wrong answer to that question.
A note on the off-market figure.
Roughly 31% of the closings we participated in this quarter never appeared on MLS. That is a consequence of the practice we have built — relationships first, listings second — and not, on its own, a market signal. It is, however, why we always tell families to begin a conversation with us before they begin one with a portal. The most interesting houses, in our corridor, are usually the ones you cannot search for online.
Questions about a specific property, a specific street, or a specific direction the market may take? We are, as ever, a phone call away.
