Horseshoe Bay Market Report, September 2026: Prices Hold, Buyers Keep the Leverage
Horseshoe Bay's median sale price held at $724K over the three months ending August 2026, flat year over year, while 42.3% of homes took price drops and sales closed near 95.9% of list. Lake LBJ held at 98.9% full as Lake Travis fell back to 89.6%.
Median sale price flat at $724K
Redfin's three-month median through August 2026 was up just 0.2% year over year.
42.3% of homes cut price
Price drops rose 1.9 points year over year and homes closed at about 95.9% of list.
Zillow value index down 3.9%
Zillow's typical home value was $704K at the end of August, even as closed-sale prices held.
New listings cooled since July
Texcella counted 49 new listings in the 30 days to September 28, down from 71 in the July window.
Lake LBJ steady at 98.9%
Lake LBJ held near full pool while Lake Travis fell from 100% in July to 89.6%.
Short answer: buyers still hold the leverage in Horseshoe Bay, and prices are holding rather than falling. Over the three months ending August 2026, homes sold for a median $724K, up just 0.2% from the same period a year earlier, per Redfin.
The July thesis stands, on better data. July's report said buyers had room to negotiate. That still holds. Homes sold at about 95.9% of list price, only 1.3% sold above list, and 42.3% of homes took a price drop, up 1.9 points year over year. Redfin rates the market not very competitive.
One note on the numbers. July's report leaned on ZIP-level Prop:Metrics figures (a $639K median value and 72 days on market). That source has not updated past May 2026, so this report moves to Redfin's city-level MLS data and Zillow's index. The 106-day median time on market here is Redfin's figure and is flat year over year. It is not evidence that homes slowed down since July; it is a different measure of the same market.
Values are drifting, sales prices are not. Zillow's typical home value for Horseshoe Bay was $704K at the end of August, down 3.9% year over year, while the Redfin median sale price was flat. Read together, estimated values are softening while the homes that do close are holding price. Sales volume was lighter: 77 homes sold in August, down 8.4% from a year earlier.
New supply has cooled since July. Texcella counted 49 new listings in the 30 days ending September 28, against 71 in the July window. Zillow showed 422 homes for sale at the end of August.
The spread still matters. Of 390 active houses, condos and townhomes on September 28, about 30% were listed under $500K, 33% between $500K and $1M, 21% between $1M and $2M, and 16% at $2M or more.
The lake is the steadiest number again. Lake LBJ read 98.9% of its conservation pool on September 28, up from 97.3% in late July. Lake Travis went the other way, from 100% in July to 89.6%. For a waterfront shopper comparing the two lakes, that swing is the structural difference: a constant-level lake keeps the waterline in front of a dock predictable.
Read with care. Horseshoe Bay is a thin resort market, and a handful of large waterfront closings can move a three-month median several percent.
Horseshoe Bay as of September 28, 2026
These figures are frozen at publication. The Horseshoe Bay guide carries the current month's numbers.
Every number, and where it came from.
Over the three months ending August 2026, Horseshoe Bay's median sale price was $723,521, up 0.2% year over year, with a median 106 days on market (flat), 77 homes sold in August (down 8.4%), a 95.9% sale-to-list ratio (up 0.7 points), 1.3% sold above list and 42.3% of homes with price drops (up 1.9 points).
redfin.com ↗Zillow's typical Horseshoe Bay home value was $703,843 as of August 31, 2026, down 3.9% over the past year, with 422 homes for sale.
zillow.com ↗Redfin's Horseshoe Bay search showed 390 active house, condo and townhouse listings on September 28, 2026: 118 at or under $500K, 245 at or under $1M, 326 at or under $2M and 373 at or under $5M.
redfin.com ↗49 new properties came to market in Horseshoe Bay in the 30 days ending September 28, 2026.
texcella.com ↗Lake LBJ was at about 824.75 feet and 98.9% full on September 28, 2026, against 98.2% a year earlier.
waterdatafortexas.org ↗Lake Travis was 89.6% full on September 28, 2026.
waterdatafortexas.org ↗Horseshoe Bay adopted a $47.04 million 2026-27 budget on September 15, 2026, keeping the tax rate at $0.26775 per $100 of valuation.
dailytrib.com ↗Horseshoe Bay's 2026 annual maintenance fees are $360.99 for Proper, North and South, and $866.52 for Horseshoe Bay West, payable January 1.
hsbpoa.org ↗
Sale price, days on market, sale-to-list and price-drop figures are city-level Redfin data (MLS and public records) for the three months ending August 2026. Typical home value and for-sale inventory are Zillow Home Value Index and Zillow market data through 2026-08-31. Lake levels are from Water Data for Texas (LCRA gauge data) on 2026-09-28. The July 2026 report used ZIP-level Prop:Metrics data, which has not updated past May 2026, so this cycle switches sources and the two reports' medians and days-on-market are not directly comparable. The price distribution is a count of 390 active house, condo and townhouse listings on Redfin's Horseshoe Bay search on 2026-09-28, grouped by list price; vacant lots are excluded.
